Margin of Error Formula:
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The Margin of Error (MOE) represents the range within which we expect the true population parameter to lie, given our sample statistic. It's a crucial concept in survey research that quantifies the uncertainty in our estimates.
The calculator uses the standard margin of error formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula shows that margin of error decreases as sample size increases, and increases with higher variability in the population.
Details: Understanding MOE helps interpret survey results correctly. A smaller MOE indicates more precise estimates, while a larger MOE suggests greater uncertainty.
Tips: Common z-scores: 1.645 (90% CI), 1.96 (95% CI), 2.576 (99% CI). For proportions, use SD = 0.5 for maximum variability. Sample size must be ≥1.
Q1: What z-score should I use?
A: For 95% confidence (most common), use 1.96. For 90% use 1.645, and for 99% use 2.576.
Q2: How does sample size affect MOE?
A: MOE decreases with larger sample sizes, but the relationship isn't linear - doubling sample size reduces MOE by about 30%.
Q3: What's a good margin of error?
A: For most surveys, 3-5% is acceptable. Political polls often aim for ±3% at 95% confidence.
Q4: Can MOE be zero?
A: Only with a census of the entire population. With sampling, there's always some error.
Q5: How does population size affect MOE?
A: For populations much larger than the sample size, it has little effect. Only matters when sample is >5% of population.